How Much Do Meta Ad CPMs Spike on Black Friday?

Meta ad CPMs typically spike 20% to more than 80% above baseline levels during Black Friday week, based on several independent 2025 analyses of real ad accounts. Lebesgue's review of $22.6 million in Meta ad spend from September through November 2025 found the median brand's CPM running 84% above its September baseline on Black Friday itself (November 28, 2025), while Supermetrics' study of 515 retail advertisers found Black Friday week CPMs running 22% to 57% higher than September, depending on the retail sector.

Why the Reported Spike Varies So Widely

Different trackers measure different samples, which is why the reported increase ranges from roughly a fifth higher to nearly double. Gupta Media's Social CPM Tracker, which follows its own set of Meta advertisers, found Cyber Monday 2024 (December 2) was the single most expensive day of that year at a $17.70 CPM, against a $7.43 annualized 2024 average — more than double the baseline. The same tracker put the Thanksgiving-and-Black-Friday week (ISO week 48) at a $13.42 average CPM for 2024, still well above the yearly norm.

• Lebesgue's 2025 sample: $22.6 million in tracked Meta spend, median brand CPM up 15% by the week of November 10 and up 84% by Black Friday itself.
• Supermetrics' 2025 sample: 515 retail advertisers, Black Friday week CPMs up 22% to 57% versus September, varying by sector.
• Gupta Media's 2024 sample: a proprietary advertiser set, with Cyber Monday CPM more than double the annual average.

None of these trackers discloses a directly comparable methodology, so none should be read as the definitive 2026 number — they're three independent data points pointing the same direction.

Which Sectors See the Smallest Jump

In Supermetrics' breakdown, clothing retailers saw the smallest CPM increase of the five sectors studied, at 22% above September by Black Friday week. Clothing advertisers in the same study also concentrated 15.6% of their entire September-through-December Meta spend into Black Friday week alone, meaning the sector with the gentlest cost spike was also the one leaning hardest into that single week.

Your Budget Doesn't Reset After Black Friday

Supermetrics also found that 61% to 85% of Black Friday week ad spend carried straight into Cyber Monday week rather than dropping back to normal, so a CPM spike on Black Friday itself isn't a one-day event you can budget around in isolation — plan for elevated costs across the full Thanksgiving-through-Cyber-Monday stretch, not just November 27.

Planning Your 2026 Black Friday Budget

With Black Friday falling on November 27, 2026, use these multiples as a planning floor rather than a precise forecast. Pull your own account's September 2026 average CPM as a baseline, then stress-test your budget against a 20% increase on the low end and an 80%-plus increase on the high end, checking your actual delivery data daily once the week starts rather than locking in a single assumed multiplier in advance.

Bottom Line

Expect your Meta CPM to climb somewhere between 20% and 80%-plus above your pre-season baseline during Black Friday week, with the increase landing toward the lower end if you're in a lower-urgency category like apparel. Build that range into your 2026 budget now, and verify it against your own account's real-time data once the week begins rather than relying on any single external benchmark.

Source: Lebesgue, Black Friday 2025 Meta ad spend analysis; Supermetrics, Black Friday Retail Playbook (515 retail advertisers, 2025); Gupta Media, Social CPM Tracker (2024).